Ukraine Frontline Collapsing Across Multiple Axes

The Ukraine Frontline has just been collapsing across multiple axes and the question for today is can Draperty, this new commander still stabilise the front and can he do what can you do? I mean what can you do there? It's a terrible situation for the good people of Ukraine. The last few we're going to go through that today. I'll ask a few weeks the situation for Ukraine on the front lines has deteriorated in a way not seen since last year, 2025, Russian forces have achieved multiple localised breakthroughs and advancing across several key sectors simultaneously and that's the issue is if they were just going through a single sector then you could probably go okay well that's you know that's manageable but this is multiple sectors and that has a major impact on the core defensive structure of the Ukraine military critical defensive positions that held for months or for years are now falling or under severe pressure the new commander-in-chief Mikhail Draperty has inherited a it's been bloody bugged basically rapidly worsening battlefield picture and we're going to sort of work our way through these points today and ask whether or not Ukraine can still stabilise the front before the end of summer because the clock is ticking on winter if they don't have there if they don't have themselves together before winter kicks in it's a very very very difficult situation so let's just rewind a bit and we'll go through the situation there so the fighting remains concentrated in the east and in the northeast with particular intensity around the remaining Donbass cities and the key logistical hubs there in the Donbass. Russia continues to prioritise grinding advances combined with opportunistic breakthroughs where Ukrainian defences are at their thinnest and Ukraine has been forced into reactive mode trying to pluck the gaps essentially while while also launching or trying to launch the limited counterattacks and selected areas the main issues are manpower ammunition fortification depth and air cover air cover as a big one because of these glide bombs something like some estimates have them at 290 glide bombs per day and that is I mean if you understand what these things are capable of it's a devastating number that just devastating the tempo of the Russian gains has accelerated in several directions all at the same time it's all happening in the same time and that's the problem because that strains the reserves that Ukraine has so the key sectors under pressure so in northeastern khaki evolved last Russia's the chief two localised breakthroughs that they threaten these localised breakthroughs threaten to encircle to create a cauldron more than 360 kilometres squared of Ukrainian controlled territory that is a major I mean that is a major drama you know the the soldiers that are inside that that is a massive amount of territory 360 square kilometres I mean that's just boy I'll tell you what and that becomes a you know it becomes a fire pit basically because they're trapped in there once once this is secured they're basically encircled and they're trapped yeah and then they just have to surrender they have to surrender they just have to surrender or just just they they will suffer the these glide bombs which is really just stupid waste of life so then we move to the you know I I'm struggling with this one but it's drove dobro pilia dobro pilia dobro pilia dobro pilia I think it's called direction a long standing Ukrainian stronghold it's been breached essentially it's been breached Russian forces now are pushing into the urban area between povrosk and dobro pilia in near Kramatorsk and Slovyansk Russian forces have now closed to within around about four kilometres of both cities and are approaching control of the key ridge line to the east now that ridge line that high ground that gives a massive advantage that's been one of the the most significant defensive structures that has been a foot of the Ukrainian forces and there are only a few you know four kilometres that's a it's a little stone show or a mortar throw for these guys so there's a lot at stake right now in the Constantinepka direction Russia has captured chassis of YAH after more than 840 days of fighting so all those who thought that you know Russia will just you know will put pressure on them and eventually they'll give up 840 days of fighting for chassis of YAH I mean this is why I'm saying this is why just you just go understand the Russian mentality is not normal it is not normal nothing about this is normal you know they are I mean they're not only man so that's all close to completing and we're talking about the capture of Constantinepka itself and that is a major major for Jesus if that thing goes then it's difficult to see how the rest of the Donbass can be defended further advances in Druzevkivka oh can't say it direction abroad Russian forces were then about five kilometres off the town and threatened another Ukrainian salient and in the obelinki and Stefanosk directions Russia has taken long contested strongholds and begun reversing all of the gains that Ukraine made earlier and our east of the Oskar River near Kopyansk and the Ukrainian brichet continues to shrink under pressure from Russia just constant pressure from Russia and it's all of that basically means what does that mean and that's what we hear the day to talk about the strategic consequences so we're talking about the loss of these key positions removes depth it removes the depth that Ukraine needs for further deterrence of the remaining Donbass cities without this defense of stronghold without this frontier that they can maintain if they don't have that I think Donbass is over I really do I don't think that type of interlating I actually think that's pretty fair multiple simultaneous advances force Ukraine to disperse scarce reserves rather than concentrate them effectively that's the issue they're they're down on manpower and if they have to fan out to cover massive areas of flatland uh flatland with an octagon flatland where they're exposed to glide bombs and drones and missiles and bloody everything artillery artillery still a big it's a big a big issue on the front lines not as big because the drones can go find these things and go and hit them uh but there's still I mean there's still a lot of artillery being used um the capture of Chess of Yar and the pressure of Constantinitica that erodes basically the defensive net that's been protecting the belt that's been protecting the Kramatorsk and Slavyansk agglomeration uh the momentum here in several sectors all at once this essentially this creates this uh risk of a cascading withdrawal where the withdrawals just add on to each other uh so look it's a desperate situation it really is uh and your party faces the immediate task of stabilizing the most dangerous breaches before they come ever become irreversible um I personally I think this is the the last uh sort of defensive structure that Ukraine will be able to maintain in there's a bigger question here there's a really big big question uh I'll get to that but uh the current rate of deterioration is the most serious that they've faced in a long time multiple multiple localised breakthroughs uh party must prioritise which sectors to hold uh the the battlefield situation is not looking good at all uh stabilisation relies on manpower uh and and really air cover they need air cover they need those patriots they're not going to get those patriots but they need those patriots they need air defense you know they're not talking about hawks from the UK we're not talking about you know those uh those older uh systems like the pack twos we're talking about pack threes that can we've seen them in the last uh sort of week also we've seen a number of really strange sorties from the uh russian air force and uh these these um these missions have been to essentially come within around seven kilometres off the front line and to to do circuits basically do circuits right in the face of uh russian air defense and they haven't been threatened they haven't been threatened at all so it's happened at least three times there was an issues um 57 were like the big the big badass uh you know gen five fighter uh basically i mean you don't want one of these things in your area you don't want that around uh the one of these came in and did a circuit that i think it did like about seven or eight circuits so if i can find the the image i'll chuck it up here it's really interesting because uh it shows the the not the cockiness but just the confidence it's the confidence that uh the russian air force have got right now multiple uh instances in the last week where aircraft have come into uh the front line where you would expect and these are in these locations you would expect there to be considerable uh air defense uh probably more and in key for uh uh live off you know you really expect there to be a very effective air defense situation in place to cover the front line troops uh that's what this is all a bit should be that's what this should be all about is the front line uh i don't think it is i think it's it's quite the opposite it's it's uh not about the front line it's all about PR uh but we've seen now you know several incursions by we'll call them incursions by uh scouts basically scout sorties sorties from the russian air force that have been coming in and doing loops and base basically waiting to be attacked uh and they haven't of concern they haven't and that's the real concern because if they haven't been attacked that means air defense is toast that means the air defense is toast you know you're seen in an issue issue 57 this is the pride and uh of the of the russian of russia it's the pride of russia it's like the f 35 you know uh so they sent in one issue 57 by itself and not a single shot was fired at it uh yeah i mean uh i i'm highly confident that means the air defense is toast there is no air defense and uh that means the troops that are in these areas that i just talked about they're fully exposed to glide bombs and unglided bombs i mean you know i don't know how much it costs for a glide kit probably pretty much bugger all really you know a glide kit strapped to an old bomb the gravity bomb probably very low cost so they'll just use glide bombs in that case but you know what i mean they if they'll have the the targeting data they'll know where the our fortifications are and they can just lob these things in uh and there's no fear of air defense uh you know suppressing the uh the the battlefield there's just no fear at all they can just fly and do this all day long uh the poor soldiers in this in these fireboxes are just you know surrender sir jesus surrender and i can listen to this but you know what i mean i hope they surrender live you know take get your life get your life life life is life is valuable so surrender uh that's my opinion team terrible situation my hearts my you know it goes out to the and these are really good people you know the Ukrainians you know i mean you the Russians too right the Russians and the Ukrainians are really good people uh i've met a bunch i remember there's one recently i was in uh maliger in spain and i i was attending a tech event you know it's basically this is going along and look at projects and you know if you find a little project that you might want to invest in you can approach the founder and you can sort of have chat to them so it's kind of a really good sort of you know area to find new talent and new projects and uh so you know there and i met this lovely uh Ukrainian girl and um you know i just introduced myself and just you know asked about the project and uh and then i met a Russian guy separately uh and then i introduced the two of them together it was just this i mean just it seemed natural at the time it was like oh you know get out you know this is the this is so and so this is so and so and so and didn't you know didn't say look you know you're Ukrainian you're Russian but i guess they figured it out pretty quickly so um they were both lovely and they both got on quite nice i mean it's one anecdote of course i'm not saying all like that but look my experience with with Russians and Ukrainians is uh they're just really good people you know lovely people so i'm sure there's some bad eggs there's bad things everywhere but uh you know i think there's some really good people that are in a shitty situation right now and the sooner it's over the better in my humble opinion team so yeah uh but i'll just sort of go through a bit of an update i don't normally do this because well it's such a it just changes so fast and it is uh like you know you could see i was struggling with the pronunciation of the totally butchered those locations but you know you do get best right uh but i guess the the main point is uh the the situation is coming to a head we're going into winter uh there there is no real front now i don't believe so i think it's over i think it's just a matter of a few months now probably maybe three four five months and uh the situation is going to be dramatically different in the Donbass uh right up to the river basically and that uh river is a i don't know i don't know if they cross the river or or now or if they if they just kick that into touch with the time beam but i think Donbass is done i think it's absolutely done uh i just think it's not feasible for Ukraine and the situation where they are right now with declining manpower a lot of desertions a lot of uh casualties and uh no backfall basically they're going around the streets and and if they find a man if they find a male of uh of eligible age they're just going to grab them drag them into a car take them off and send them to the front line you know put force them to put a uniform on take a battle rifle and start walking forward towards the front line and if you don't if you turn around and start running away the shooter that sort of stuff is going on there as far as i can tell that's according to all uh you know all the stories that you hear it's like uh that's the sort of thing that is happening there and i don't know if it's all exactly like that but it's pretty pretty brutal the way drag in people off the streets and conscriptive force conscription uh in Ukraine uh you can't and so when you've got that tension in your uh country you don't have people willingly signing up and volunteering to go to the front line uh then you know the the that's a difficult situation it has a very difficult situation so um yeah all this uh western hubris mainly european in my view i think most of it's actually been well since Biden went most of it's actually been just european you know blaster and uh they're they're just basically using Ukraine in my opinion uh that's what's happening right now they're just using them and um they have a lot to answer for London uh Germany France you know you guys have got a lot to answer for here uh yeah i think it's going to come back we'll see we'll see if it does then i'll be the first to report it i'll tell you that i'll be the first to report it because i think it's pretty shitty what's happened to um so the wonderful people are Ukraine so i mean russia as well russia as well i mean good people in russia as well you know you can hate that right if you're on team you you Ukraine you might hate the russian the you know the country of russia but should you hate russian people i don't think so same the same the other way around you know should russians hate people of Ukraine i don't think so at all i think they're all good people so not all but you know mostly most people are good people there's a few eggs but mostly good so you know that's how i feel about the whole thing there's a bit of a you know a battlefield update uh from uh from me Dave uh on this show uh Dave talks politics have review on team have a great day bye