New Zealand After Bishkek Walk the Line, Do Not Pick a Side

Alright, so the SEO summit was not theatre for when you sell them. It was a very, very serious situation. You'll take an Australia and square brackets at the end of this. At some point, the PM's going to be asked a very simple question in order to protect us from which enemy. It's so hard to say. 400 billion, pick one. A regional player. Specifically, Colonel. An Indo-Pacific regional player. More specifically? Indo-Asia Pacific. That's broader. Who are you leaving out? Europe? Yeah, I sort of need a country. Or an unaligned player. No, a country. One that won't threaten us. Just one. Yeah. I wouldn't want to raise tensions. Where? In this room. You know what? I'll name one, and you just nod. China. Yeah? Okay. And what exactly are we protecting? This was a reminder that the economic centre of gravity is moving through Eurasia. And that China is organising the routes, the finance, and the political language around that shift. Now, our prosperity in New Zealand runs through Chinese demand, essentially. By that trade has been around 40 billion for New Zealand, New Zealand dollars. China remains, there's quite a lot in terms of GDP. China remains the largest trading partner, and dairy alone has been running at more than $8 billion. The most important part there is China remains the largest trading partner. So you've got to take care, a lot of care. In New Zealand alliances with China has been renewed through 2031, because tourism and cargo still needs those seats. And most importantly, those landing rights to deliver lobster, shellfish, milk powder, and other critical exports from the country. A little country like New Zealand, or a slightly bigger country like Australia, needs to sell its produce. It doesn't get a vote on whether the unipolar moment which in my opinion team is happening right now. It doesn't get a vote on whether that moment is actually happening right now. It only gets a choice about how it handles the transition. Now, we need to say, in my opinion, the right things to Washington. So let's have a look at this. So New Zealand should keep saying the alliance language that America wants to hear, to basically keep saying the things that they want to hear. Five eyes matters, that's a good one. Australia matters, that's a great one. Interoperability with trusted partners is a real insurance policy and a rougher Pacific, another good one. These are nice little cliches that our politicians in New Zealand and Australia should be saying all the time. There is nothing unserious about buying capable helicopters, keeping intelligence channels open or standing right next to your colleagues in New Zealand or your colleagues in Australia when the neighbourhood, the South Pacific gets marginalised. And when China starts to test long range missiles over the South Pacific, for example, then Wellington in New Zealand can and should call that unwelcome. They should pull their hair out, a nuclear-free region. This is down in New Zealand. There's a nuclear-free region that's been declared. It's been here for decades, for centuries almost. It's a part of who we are that aren't going to change. They know that, we know that, so we kind of get on. It's not just a slogan to throw away and we won't throw that away. Australia have, that's their prerogative. New Zealand hasn't, that's also their decision. The point there is not to humiliate anyone, including Beijing. The point is to show Washington that New Zealand is not, we're definitely an ally and we're definitely part of five eyes, but we're also not really a soft touch. So, you know, we kind of played both sides there. But we don't want to talk like a crusader. We don't want to talk like a rebel. We don't want to rock the boat. We certainly don't want to look like we are basically poking the Americans in the eye by getting too cozy with China and with the Global South. Well, the problem with this, right? Because you do have to do what I'm saying is you don't have to say. You can say what do you like because the politicians and the diplomats are very, very good at smoothing over words. You know, you've got actions and you've got words. Now, the focus really should be on actions. It's like with Trump, right? Trump says a thousand things and pretty much a thousand things are all rubbish. He just makes stuff up and have you noticed that his actions are like, his actions don't match what he says. You'll make it claim, you won't do it. You'll make it claim, you know, just regard it. So, this is basically what they do to us. I mean, you really should do the same back to them. But in a much more positive way, like we think you guys are amazing. But we've just sold a whole lot of stuff to China. America is great high five and we really like, you know, your culture. And then we're doing a deal to sell milk powder to around. I mean, it's a bad example. But you know what I mean? I'm basically saying, talk the talk. Don't walk the walk. Don't walk the walk. Do your thing. Do what you need to be. Be pragmatic. Talk the talk. Like when you're going talk about, you know, when you talk about, if China does something, you come out and you say, you're terrible. You guys are really horrible and we think you're absolutely awful. And we stand by America and then go and do what you need to do. Sell, sell, sell. You can, you can play both. If they understand what you're doing, it's not a problem. It is not a problem. I mean, you got to make sure that there are some lines in there. They are red lines. Not that you can have any red lines if you're like Australia. You don't really have a military to speak of. I mean, yes, they do. But I mean, we're talking about China. So, compared to China, don't really have a military. So, all I'm saying is, you know, talk the talk. Walk a different walk. Walk a different walk. So, we're talking about the money. We're talking about the ships and the customers that are still in Asia. So, recently the Prime Minister and New Zealand said, stop waiting for a political perfection, a perfect political weather report, and just build commercial returns in China right now. Just get on with it. Don't wait. You're going to be waiting forever if you're waiting for a perfect political world. Don't do it. Get on with it and expedite as fast as you can. New Zealand firms are already operating there, localising hard over half of surveyed companies now run China teams with no New Zealand nationals on the ground. Can you understand that? That's massive, unbelievable. Now, that is not ideology. That's how you stay in the market. That's how you get the job done. The SEO agenda on ports, screen power, AI applications, overland corridors is exactly the kind of infrastructure a commodity exporter should study quietly and not denounce. Do not denounce it. You know, denounce everything else. But in fact, you don't need to denounce anything. Keep a low profile. Keep your head down. And just bloody trade. Trade like your life depends on it. Because it does. Because it does. Yeah, and discretion. Use discretion. That is a great strategy. Praise American partnership in English. And then keep the trade working groups. Keep the education links. The food safety channels. And the visitor flows moving in Mandarin. Do you understand the difference? So you praise American in English. And you deliver and build. You integrate in Mandarin. You keep the two very separate. That is the pathway forward. How to walk the line without falling off it. Do not join every American who European, British, in particular British. They have gone crazy. They have just gone crazy. Do not join every American moral crusade. Do not join every Chinese community either. Stay away from that stuff. You don't need to get involved in that. Small countries survive by being boring, by being invisible, by being predictable, and by being extremely hard to punish. It is those key ways down in the South Pacific. These guys are great. They are really funny. They are Australians. They are hilarious. They are good here. You know what I mean? Just be that boring, predictable, hard to punish Mino in the South Pacific. Stay out of the radar. Don't get involved. Keep the one China policy. I am going to speak very clearly here. This is really important. Keep it exactly where it has been since 1972. Recognize Beijing. Keep unofficial ties with Taiwan. Don't. Don't. Don't. If you have ministers who have just gone off the rails and, you know, I don't know. I don't know what's happened, but if they help on a flight and go to Taiwan to stir shit up, slap them. It was a trip many politicians had been on before them to foster New Zealand's relationship with Taiwan. But upon their return, the four MPs received an email from a New Zealand parliament staffer. It was basically an email saying that they had met with some Chinese officials and they wanted to pass on the message that myself and the other MPs that traveled to Taiwan would be banned for one year. I was really shocked and surprised by this. I was disappointed. It had been indicated before we left that China wasn't happy. So I guess some response was to be expected, but this is at the upper end of what you'd expect. Ex-Lora McClure still doesn't know why. Absolutely have no idea. I mean, let me have a focus. Just really, one the back and you cannot have that. It's so destructive to your little country. Don't put your head up over the parapet. You'll get it knocked off. You'll get the bloody thing knocked off. So catch your head down. Bloody idiots a day off. They had happened recently. They had a bunch of junior idiots who thought they'd get some spotlight if they hopped on a plane went to Taiwan and set back probably, I don't know, I'm guessing at least $3 billion in trade. That's my guess. Something like that. They're probably set New Zealand back six months by that little. And what did we get out about? Nothing. We literally got nothing out of it. Unbelievable. Those idiots, Jesus Christ, don't do that shit. Really, don't do that. Do the opposite of that. Diversify exports where it is cheap and real. Absolutely. Especially to Southeast Asia. Boy, I tell you what, that is our India as well. Wow. Middle East. Wow, these are great marketplaces. But do not pretend that diversification replaces China because it does not. And China will be watching. They watch everything. They watch it. Well, they're AI basically watch everything. And that only reduces the chance of a single door slamming. We don't want that. Stay out of Walker's. Stay the hell away from Walker's. That thing, baby, dragons in there. This is New Zealand. Australia. Get out of Walker's. Get the hell away from the UK. It's bad, man. It's really bad. You're going to come a cropper. Come on, Aussie. You can do it. Sort your shit out. Get rid of the, you've got a bunch of neocons in Canberra and they have lost their minds. I think there's a lot of bricks there as well. Maybe they drop the dropouts from the UK. They probably got booted out of the MOD because they were too hawkish or too crazy. And they booted them out and they sent them down to Australia. They got a job down there and now they're working for the MOD in Australia. Because they are crazy. Those guys are totally bad shit, crazy. They are ideologues to the maximum. They think that they're about to get invaded by Russia. It's like, what the fuck are you talking about? Unbelievable idiots, just total idiots. So watch out, Australia. Watch out for hubris in Canberra. Watch out for neocons in Canberra. Because there are neocons everywhere. But there appear to be a lot of them in Canberra. A lot of them very close to policy. And they're doing stupid stuff. Being led by, they've got to ring through their nose and they've been dragged along by the British. The British have sucked them in. Now so far New Zealand has stayed away. So well done to, I think it's Winston Peters as the current guy in charge there. So he's obviously slapped a few heads together. The Chinese understand precisely what we're saying. They haven't been around these thousands and thousands of years. Because they're not, because they're not brilliantly intelligent, they are. And I think we've had, we've required a bit to understand the Chinese mind. It's long-term, it's strategically long-term and it goes hundreds of years and it's planning. And there are examples of that in China's past. Now against that our thinking has got to be measured. But those that don't, that believe somehow by calling out things you don't like, you're going to get off side of China, I believe, are wrong. And well done, because that's a very important thing to do is to keep out of that hemisphere of, you know, of the UK. It is digging itself a massive hole. We just need to stay as far as we possibly can away. Same with Aussie. We need to distance ourselves from all of that hubris. Because as you're about to see, as you're about to see. And look, come back and hold me to account if I'm wrong. But I think in 2026 and I think it could be a lot quicker than that. If you've seen what's happy reported by Ukraine on the, the Ukraine Mappers of the front line, here we are in September. If you go and have a look at what's actually happening there, as reported by Ukraine, it's fallen. Man, the whole place is just fallen. It's gone, it's totally gone. It's now a matter of time. But basically there's a set of fortresses on the front line. And they've fallen. And behind those fortresses is just clear land. And we're going into winter. And there's a ramping up of air power from the Russian side. So I tell you what, it's awful for everybody involved. Not just the soldiers who have been, you know, dragged off the streets, bungled into a van, given a rifle and sent to the front line and said, march forward to the trenches. It's a shit for them, man. It's really shit. But also just for normal people, just normal people in Ukraine. I mean, they're just getting absolutely smashed right now. So yeah, awful. The sooner that's over, the better. And the most peaceful way possible with the least damage, right? The least damage, man. Just so they can, look, it doesn't really matter. I mean, it probably matters to them, but it doesn't really matter to their lives, you know? It probably matters for their nation, but it doesn't matter for their lives. You know, I think their lives are more important than the flag they sit under. I think at this point where you've just got something, they report, I think a guy called Budanov, who is one of the head honchos there, is reporting recently that they're losing 30,000 per month. Now, this isn't contrast to what we've been told for a long time by the British media. The British media has been saying that's the other side. You know, Russia's completely blah, blah, blah. And I think at one point they were saying, there's a Russian, the new recruits basically the only last 90 minutes at the front. That's what they were saying. A Russian new recruit, only last 90 minutes, and then he's toast at the front. That's what they were spinning, total. I mean, it's just ignorant, really. And now we find out from Ukraine themselves, they're saying, actually, we're losing 30,000 per month. We don't think we can actually backfill that, or they've got, they're raising questions around, how can they, what do they need to do to be able to, you know, grab 30,000 per month? It's terrible, man. It's absolutely terrible. There's no way you could look at that situation and go, it's fine. It's just not fine. It's really not fine. I mean, if it's coming down to look, you can have 30,000 people every month survive. And there's a different, different line on the map. Or not. I mean, for me, it's like an easy thing. I was like, you know, these people don't care. They've been dragged off the street in a van, stand to the front to die. They don't care. They don't want to do that. So, I mean, it's not my place. It's not my country, so I don't get a vote in that. But it just seems really odd, you know. 30,000 a month. It's just the numbers are crazy. It's like World War II situation. No, it's just crazy. To hope for the sake of the people of Ukraine, I pray, I pray that you... I'm not a religious person, but I pray that you... that this ends quickly. And it ends as bloodlessly as it can. Yeah. But for New Zealand, right? New Zealand, Australia? Jesus, guys, come on. Don't let your politicians go on these idealistic crusades in Taiwan. Don't do that, man. Don't do that. Back out of Orcas, do it discreetly. Do it diplomatically. Quietly pull yourself out of that. Find an excuse for it to fail. Do not let it succeed. It was an absolute disaster. You'll find yourself in a hornet's nest. That's what will happen, so... Nothing wrong with buying the best-killing world. The F-35. There's nothing wrong with buying the F-35s. Hanover, first. You're not a superpower. You don't need nuclear submarine. You don't need that. Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's all from me today. I hope you've enjoyed this sweet show about New Zealand in Australia and via posture. In my opinion, towards the global South, China and the S.I. and the global South. I think it's interesting. I think it's super interesting. That's how I feel about it. Tell me how you feel about it. Tell me down below. If you can't relate, trade the cash for the beat for the body for the heat. And my time is a piece of wax falling on a termite. It's choking on the splinters.