GOP 2028: Vance Leads But Rubio Surges Dramatically

Jul 16, 2026

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Chapters

00:00 Introduction: Vance vs Rubio 2028 01:05 Betting Market Reality: Vance Leads, Rubio Surges 02:15 Rubio's Rise: Secretary of State Role 03:30 Vance's Structural Advantages 05:05 Vance's Liabilities 05:45 Rubio's Strengths and Challenges 06:30 Other Potential Candidates: DeSantis, Ramaswami, Carlson 07:10 Bottom Line: Vance Still Frontrunner 07:40 Conclusion and Call to Action

Transcript

Republican nominee for 2028. Who's going to be Vance? Basically that's what I think. Vance leads, but Rubio's surging. What? Bloody Rubio. I think Rubio's got some real problems, but let's have a look. So current betting market reality, JD Vance currently leads the 2028 Republican presidential nomination markets on polymarket with around 38% probability. It's early July. Marco Rubio has seen a sharp rise in recent weeks moving into clear second place. Well, there you go. The surges largely attributed to Rubio's high profile role as Secretary of State. And it's handling of multiple foreign policy crises while early betting markets are far from decisive. You say it again. It's early. They do reflect real shifts in elite and donor assentment. Vance remains the clear front runner, but the race is no longer viewed as his to lose by default. Well, I mean, I thought it was his to lose by default. And this is saying, no, no, no, that's changed. So yeah, interesting. Bloody interesting. His structural advantage is Vance. As the sitting vice president, Vance starts with an enormous advantage. Absolutely. He's got Trump's endorsement. That's huge. If you're a mega, that's huge. Strong name recognition among the mega, mega base. That's really important. Access to the Trump donors and activist network. And that's really important to have money. You need a lot of money to pull this off. And I don't think Rubio's got that. Maybe he does, but I haven't heard that. Yes, that's a huge advantage for JD. His youth, he's only 44. Unbelievable. You know, young, he's a young pup. He'll be 44 in 2028, that is. And as media skills, he's got some skills, man. He's got some skills. He is not damaged goods right now. He could well be, but so far, he's managed to avoid that label of damaged goods. So, yeah. Yeah, 44. He'll be 44 in 2028. And he's really got those media skills. I think he does a great job in front of the camera. He carries some liabilities. So, his lower approval ratings outside of the Trump base. Basically, he's got to work on that. Limited executive experience. So, hasn't been a CEO, perception among some voters, overly online and ideological. And they could really be converted into weaknesses. Rubio. Let's have a look at Rubio. So, he's gained significant ground because of his position, highly visible, multiple crisis. He's sensitive to high ground quite a bit, which is what people like. Yeah, so he's made some good gains. Now, there's a few others brought afield, Rhonda Santas, Vivek Ramaswami, and Tucker Carlson. Tucker, I think Tucker came out the last 48 hours as a third party, rather than getting in bed with their Republicans. So, yeah, I don't think he's going to get involved, but Santas, he could be there. And there's others. Bottom line team, bottom line JD Vart remains that clear front runner for the 2028 Republican nomination, around 38 percent on polymarket. Marco, Rubio coming in, surging in second place. And the rest, the pack has been way out well behind him. So, bloody interesting. Let's trap this. We've got to keep an arm. Because before you know it, small hands will be gone. It'll all be over. We'll be moving it to a new regime. Anyway, yeah, hope you enjoyed that. Rubio, our team. Hope you have a great day. Bye.

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