Russia's UK Strike Plans Hypothetical Analysis

Oh boy, this one's good. So let's have a look at the Russian retaliation against the UK. This is a hypothetical. I'm not saying this is going to happen. In fact, it's unlikely to actually happen. But I think it's worth exploring what happens if we poke Russia in the eye hard enough. So let's go and have a look at what might theoretically happen if the Russians get ready pissed off and just to say that's enough net means net. Well, let's just go, we'll go down the rabbit hole and we'll see what comes out. So Russian retaliation against the UK, hypothetical targets, I'll say it again, YouTube, hypothetical targets and strategic logic, OK? All right, so the red-blind context. Russia has repeatedly stated that the use of long range western missiles such as storm shadow against targets deep inside Russian territory crosses a major threshold. Now, how many times have they said this, oh, don't do that, you'll cross our red-blind. Actually, not that many times, not at an official level, not Putin saying it. Most of the time, it's one of the hawks like Medvedev or the crazies are out there saying this sort of stuff, but not actually an official line from the Kremlin. Generally, they try and hold back from that. They might say it, but they'll say, well, it'll be veiled, you know, be like a veiled sort of comment that makes you think, what does that mean? You know, it might imply that they might do it, but they don't just come out and say it because strategically that closes a bunch of doors for them. So yeah, but they have kind of indicated that, look, that's bad, don't do that, that's red-blind. From Moscow's perspective, these strikes are not seen as Ukraine operations. These are recent strikes, right? They hit Petersburg and I think Moscow and some other big, big bloody area deep inside Moscow. So these are just happening. That's why we're talking about it. Yeah, particularly from the UK, as the main supplier and the neighbour, because it works out that you, the way these storm shadows work is you put, you hitch them up underneath an EF16 or something like that and then you fly to altitude and then you just drop them and you light them up and they have an engine on board, so they'll light up and then they'll start, they've got little winglets will pop out and then they can fly for, well, you know, the long-range, long-range ammunition. And in the head of these things, the large, it's quite a large sort of, it looks like a roof box that you find on a car. It's kind of like that. And it'll fly for, I think the jasms do about 500 miles, something like that. So go, they'll go a fairway and they've got a lot of payload capacity up the front there. So you can put like a conventional munition, but you know, I mean, I don't really know what I'm on, I'm not like a missile engineer, but I mean, I am an avionics engineer, so I've got to go a rough idea, but it is possible that you could put something else in there. Now, I don't know what that might be, but I'm sure the Russians do. And they're like, ah, guys, that's a red line. So yeah, basically, that's the hypothetical scenario we're sort of talking about. And Russia views as a qualitative escalation that changes the nature of the conflict. Now, you might disagree and say, oh, that's all rubbish. They've got nothing to be frightened of. It's just a storm shadow. It won't do anything. You're overreacting. This is all hyperbolic, it's all propaganda. I don't disagree, but I'm just saying, it doesn't matter what you think. It doesn't matter what I think in Team West. What matters is what they think. And they think this is a crossing a red line. That's what they are saying. So, as any Russian response would therefore be calibrated to impose costs on who the UK, on Ukraine, probably not. This is clearly a UK exercise to send these things in. And the main reason I'm confident about that is because I've heard a number of, like, highly regarded Western missile analysts, and they explain the way that the jasms and the storm shadows work, is that they run from terrain mapping data that is loaded into the munition before it's dropped, right? So, they actually know exactly the pinpoint that the munition is going to arrive at. And they know pretty much exactly what time it's going to arrive. They, because they load all these data, which show, inside the front of the missile, there's some sort of assembly of array of sensors that can map the terrain. And they can follow the, you know, they can use the information that's loaded on board to figure out one where they are, two where they're going. And they can basically track their way through to the target and then they away they go. So, even if you can block the GPS signal, they don't care. They'll still find the target. And that's why they can get into deep inside Russia, because of course, Russia, GM, GPS, they've got their own system inside Russia. So, yes, they're very effective at jamming GPS, but that's why the storm shadows can actually be effective because they've got this advanced technology. But the reason why I'm saying all that is only, and it's the way I've been told, certainly for jasms, the only way that you can load those data into the munition is if you have clearance at a top secret level, and you've been approved by the USA. This is all based on a US system, and the only way is basically it's under export controls, and the only way you can load targeting data into this munition is if you are cleared by the USA, you have to have approval to fire each single shot. You can't make that shot, unless the USA can't say stamp, yep, you're good to go. Now, that changes a lot, right? That changes the album a lot. So, we're focusing on the UK today. There's obviously another bigger question in there, but let's park that one for today and just focus on the UK. So, in the scenario, hypothetical scenario, YouTube, Russia's gold would likely be deep further long-range strikes on Russia, on Russian detour, I should say. Detour, more of this stuff, raise the political and economic cost to the UK government, demonstrate that Britain is not immune from the consequences of its decisions, and then avoid actions that would automatically trigger article five. They probably prefer asymmetrical, limited responses first, but if they chose direct kinetic strikes, the targets would be chosen for maximum political and military effect. Now, potential target category, just for fun, just for fun, potential target categories and specific examples. Here are the most likely categories of targets, that Russia might consider, ranked roughly by our probability and escalation levels. So, number one, military logistics and support infrastructure, high probability. It's a very high probability that the first thing they would go after, they would go after the coordinates of the buildings where the stuff was made. Yeah, if you work there, don't work there. But don't work there. Now, would they try to impose mortality on the UK, probably not that in our anybody. So, they probably do it in the middle of the night, but is there going to be somebody there? Absolutely. Will there be mortality? Yes, there will. They'll go for those sort of facilities. So, wherever the components are made for the storm shadow, wherever they're assembled, the design studios, the supplies, key suppliers, all that sort of stuff, they would target that. Raff bases. Okay, so, bases that have been linked to training, planning, enabling long range strike operations, those are the bases that would, they'd be target candidates. Ammunition and weapons storage, basically. So, if there's any of these things left and the Russians know about it, then they will target those facilities and see if they can take them out. And that would send a clear message to the UK that the homeland is no longer a sanctuary, and yeah, now section B, the second section. So, that was A, those targets. Now, B would be the intelligence and command facilities. So, the GCHQ headquarters in Chapman, and then other key intelligence or military command sites by MI6 and London, places where a lot of the information planning comes from. And then the last one is defense industry sites, factories and facilities, key defense contractors, that go after those. Oh, there's one more. There's actually a couple more. Shut there's more. Christ, they've got so many targets. LNG terminals, electricity substations, grid infrastructure, political, symbolic targets, government buildings in London, keep our political military decision-making centres, and yeah, they would avoid mass casualties because that's bad. That's a really bad thing to do. Any direct strike on UK territory would be a major escalation, which is why Russia would not do this. I'm not saying they will do this. I'm saying they won't do this. I'm just going through this hypothetical to say, eventually, they get to a point where they probably will do this. I hope we never get there, but if you keep going up the ladder, you end up at this point here. So, let's not do that. That's really bad. I don't think this will happen. I really don't. I think it's incredibly unlikely. They will try everything else before they have to go here, because at this point, it's getting really, really, you know, we're getting into a very dark situation. And the bottom line team, the bottom line, and by the way, how do they do this? The loads are different ways, right? There are so many ways of carrying out this, this, what I'm talking about, this hypothetical scenario without actually putting jets in the air. You don't even need jets in the air. You can literally use existing systems that are fired and a few minutes later they arrive and they destroy the target completely. Like, they're Russian, it's a great example of a conventional missile, and it has a bunch of warheads that don't have a munition in them. Like, there's no explosive warhead. It's basically just a, they call it the rods of God, I think it is. And they're basically titanium rods and they, because they're going so bloody fast, and it's like marked in or something ridiculous. And they hit the ground and they don't actually make a big explosion, but they penetrate and they go and destroy everything. The shock wave alone from each of these titanium rods just at marked 10 or something, it just completely obliterates everything. It's just, everything structure's just gone. So I think they've used them like six or seven times. It's been pretty effective. So they don't need to fly jets in and do this in there. It doesn't have to be like a traditional air war that you're kind of seen on TV over the years. It's nothing like that nowadays. It's like, you know, they'll launch a three minutes later, thing will arrive and the job will be done. And we'll find out about it is, you know, beyond the news. So you're not going to have like, you know, 20 structural threats of enter the airspace and they're intercepted by some tornado squadrons and blood. No, no, no, no, it's not like that anymore. So yeah, so look, that was just a bit of a hypothetical. It was for a bit of fun, tongue of cheek, but it does sort of expose how exposed we are in the West. You know, we think we're all bold as brass and, you know, we've got, you know, we're, you know, we're invincible, you know, we're, we're, we're Britain, you know, we won World War II. You know, so look, that's where we are. And I'm just saying, when you go up the escalation ladder at the top of that ladder somewhere up the top, it's actually not the top, some miles away from the top, but up that ladder, you end up in that place. Let's not do that team. That's a really dumb thing to do, you okay? Germany, France, the Baltics, the Nordics. Guys, don't do that, don't do that. Come back down the ladder. Don't go crazy and go climbing up that ladder. There'll be dragons up that ladder, so. But wherever you are, team, on this amazing day, I hope you have a good one. Cheers.