why Iran must NOT sink the abraham lincoln aicraft carrier

that destroyer right there among several others, it has intercepted ballistic missiles and drones that were directly targeting the Abraham Lincoln. This ship I'm on right now is considered a high-value target and that destroyer right there. That destroyer right there has intercepted multiple threats from Iran with Iran trying to hit this ship. We had 111 missile shot a few weeks ago by our lovely friends from Iran. They were aimed at the Abraham Lincoln, which is a beautiful aircraft carrier by the way. The SS Abraham Lincoln 111 a short period of time out of the 111 missile shot, 111 missiles were knocked into the sea. Easily, think of that. And I called the captain of the ship. He wasn't even sweating. All you got Jamie Diamond would be sweating that. You wouldn't like that. We have a different kind of strength Jamie, right? We don't have that, but think of it. 111 missiles are coming at you and he's drinking his coffee, taking it easy. Why hasn't Iran hit a US carrier yet? Well, I mean, hopefully it doesn't happen, but I think we should have a bit of a look at why it hasn't happened yet. What are the possible options? So Iran has not yet struck a single US carrier or a major warship during months of conflict. Many assume this means weakness. Iran are weak. They lack that capability to be able to do this. But the real reason in my opinion, at least, is far more strategic because hitting one of these things can hand Washington exactly what it needs and what it wants. What do I mean by that? So a major American casualty, a mass casualty event would create a and this happens everywhere, a rally around the flag moment. It's something that should be avoided at all costs because when F and when the people of America rally around their president, they rally around their nation like after 911. When that happens, boy, I tell you what, that's a major, major event and it's very, very hard to stop the momentum that occurs if that happens. So in my view team, this is not hesitation because I think they have considerable capability in this domain. I think it's deliberate discipline. I think they've had loads of time to plan for what's happening right now and they've been very thoughtful and very careful about how they react and respond to provocation. So let's go and have a look at this the trap. We'll call it the trap, the discipline behind it and what could break it? What could prepare for small hands, team crazy Trump? They've been waiting for something like this to happen, whether it's Trump or Biden or somebody else, somebody else who's even crazier, somebody else who's captured by powers, by very powerful money and very powerful institutions in the USA. They've just been preparing because they knew it was going to happen sooner or later and it's happened right now. So decades in preparation for exactly this kind of confrontation with the United States of America. It's doctrine, it emphasizes, published doctrine emphasizes asymmetric warfare, it emphasizes proxies, the use of proxies and it emphasizes very carefully and calibrated responses. And they understand they, Tehran, Tehran understands American politics, they are acutely aware of all of the parameters of American politics. A very small incident can be contained but hundreds of thousands of hundreds or thousands or hundreds of thousands, hundreds or thousands of US casualties, a mass casualty event for the US military, that changes everything. They're gold instead, they're gold, they're doctrine instead is to, there's not to do that, their doctrine is to uplead their opponent through careful attrition, while avoiding the trigger for a full scale of invasion. Because essentially they know that if they do trigger that, it's a major disaster for, not only for the USA but it's also a disaster for the people of Iran. So far strikes have been reciprocal. So base for base, asset for asset bridge for a bridge, eye for an eye, what a marco, little marco, say the other day said eye for a head. He was like, oh, if you say eye for an eye, I'm going to say eye for a head, what a loser, if I can find it, I'll spice it in. What an absolute dropkick. Is this flexing? It's not flexing, that's really weak man, it's so weak. But so far these strikes have been keeping designed to keep the conflict contained. Don't kick off, you know. If you're going to take, if you're going to impose casualties on the USA, you don't have large numbers, you do it 10, 20 at a time, you don't do it like 100 or 1000 at a time. But as far as I can tell, hard to find what's actually true because obviously they wouldn't want to say if there was a 20 plus casualty event, it feels like a 20 plus KOA event, that would be major. But I think there have been 20 plus endured in recently. The satellite footage shows some devastating, devastating strikes by around on barracks. I mean, I'm sure I can find those images and put them up, but they show clearly devastation, at least four barracks, maybe six barracks, fairly badly damaged, destroyed. No, not damaged, destroyed. I just hope and pray for those Marines that they had enough warning and they had the time to get to a bunker. From some of the footage I saw, there are no bunkers at that location. You can't go underground. They just had like a steel box, not even a reinforced box, it was just like a shed, like a garden shed. It was just unreal, just unreal. I'm gonna lack a preparation by the secretary Hexier. I mean, completely not a let down for the troops, damn nobody, hide in the garage shed. There's these ballistic, you know, hypersonic missiles coming, it's just it troaches. Yes, a large scale rally around the flag momentum, strong enough to turn a contested war into a very righteous one, you know, a righteous Christian war. Yeah, this is the doorway to a formal declaration of war and the next phase, so, and that would be a ground, devastating ground invasion for all involved. It'd be terrible for the Marines who tried it, but it also has a massive cost on the Iranians. Domestic consent, this is interesting, and the United States is actually not there, it's not there for a full invasion, in fact, quite the opposite. A lot of mega, all of the crazy Trump supporters, they are basically saying, we voted for the opposite. I mean, there was a really great episode recently with Judge Napolitano, and he had a head Jim Webb on, and he basically said it was quite good, so if I can find that, I'll chuck it in as well, but he was basically saying, yeah, bugger this. No, we voted, he, because Jim Webb, this guy, his famous name, we've and Jim Webb, yeah, he was basically saying, well, we voted for mega, we voted for Trump, because he promised not to take us into these stupid wars and what happened, and then he went even further and literally laid it out, blaming Israel for dragging the Marines into this disaster, and literally costing lives. So, we're now, we're literally starting to see this on some pretty major, you know, major media, so I think that's pretty major media, I think it's had probably, I'll say that's not nothing, that is definitely not nothing, so Ryan's leadership has assessed that handing America this card, basically, it's a very powerful card, very strongly, this card rally around the flag, it's a big deal, Trump would love it, if he had that card, he could just go all in, but he doesn't have it, and they don't want to give it to him, so they're holding back that card, so, yeah, interesting stuff, I'm just sitting here watching the surfers, they're out here, I'll flip it around so you can have a look, they're out there, and they are having a good old time, the surfers, hard to see them, they're kind of like over here, and those waves are actually pretty decent, they're not bad, they're not bad, let me take the lens off, I'll see if I can take the lens off, and we've got a wide angle lens on there, so does that let us see them a bit better? Yeah, not really, but they're all on foils, when they get up on the, some of the wrong foils, when they get up on the foil, boy they rip, they're absolutely rip, you know, I'll see if I can catch one, no, he's not going to make it, no, he didn't make it, yeah, they'll open it out there, it'll shut that body, a bit of zoom out of there, cross on the bike, here we go, chuck that back on, that's it, that's better, all right, so, yeah, so let's have a look at the risks of breaking that discipline, so around's restraint, oh, they're getting up, there's a bloody minute I turn the camera around, the bloody get up on foil, that's all right, yeah, yeah, so it's the most available asset of around right now, is that discipline, they have to maintain the discipline, do not get sucked into, don't get sucked in, basically don't get sucked in, three main ways that discipline could break, one, a cock up, miscalculation by the Iranians, I don't think that's the case, I think they're very, very disciplined, so far, but we'll see, we'll keep an eye on that, a deniable proxy attack, now this is pretty clever stuff for, if you're in team Israel, you'd probably, you'd be like, let's just do that, let's do something like that, I'm not sure if you understand what that means, but it's not a great thing, it would basically mean a third party, a third party would be killing Americans to try and drag in, to blame it on Iran, so something like that, or you could even just do a disputed incident where you just make it up, and you say, there were 30 Marines there, they've got killed, that's bad, we're going to blame Iran and the way you go, so there's all that sort of stuff that you could do, I don't think any of them are going to happen, I just think it's too crazy, it's way too crazy, I mean, they do crazy, but that's right up there, so, no, I think it would really just be a total cock-up by Iran that actually caused already around the flag event, historical parallels, let's have a look at these, because they're pretty sobering, so the USS Main, the Gulf of Tonkin, and plenty of other cases where war has come first, and the full truth came later, and the full truth was terrible, but it's too late because we had a rally around the flag for those events, so, basically, if that trigger gets pulled, then Washington gets its permission to invade, permission by the people, by the people of America, they will gladly say absolutely, and if you were to stand up and say, that's wrong, you just get drowned out, everyone's saying, no, you're not America, you're a traitor, stuff like that, so, yeah, so that's what I'm watching massive build-up happening right now. I mean, we're still 27 July, so there has been a large build-up of supply chain, and when you see the build-up of supply chain, then you know that there is a credible potential, there's enough energy that has concentrated near the close enough to the to the theatre to allow for the trigger pullers to actually get to work. If you don't have the supply chain, they can't, yeah, they won't, they won't, they don't, they shouldn't at least, they won't, their leadership should be like, no, we don't have the supply chain, we don't have the medics, their combat medics are key in a situation like this, and they need to be right there, and they need to be able to evact casualties through the supply chain all the way back to Germany, and it's got to be intact and maintained, and what's all I'm talking about is, let's just say you've got the carg iron, right carg iron, and you've got, are you sending, like you're sending, say, 300 or 3000 troops, trigger pullers, right? Marines with battle rifles and, you know, lots of, lots of kit as much as they can carry as much as they can put on the landing craft, and they get in there, right, good as gold, and they put the flag in, dunk, sweep, you know, stage one, tick, mission accomplished, and stage two is to survive. Now, those people have to have water, they've got to have rations, they have to have the ability to defend themselves against drones that are being fired from 100 kilometers away, in the land behind, behind cliffs, steep cliffs, and behind them, there are these, they've got the coordinates, they're getting radio coordinates, right, you know, so and so, can you please fire, you know, 20 drones at this land, and this long, and they do, they go, no problems, I'll put those in, and I'll send them off, they go, and then, you know, 10, 15, 20 minutes later, they arrive at those late long, and that's where hunk of down are a bunch of these American Marines, right, in this hypothetical scenario, and they're all hunk of down, and they're like, you know, they're just, they don't have any, they're not dug in, because they don't have the ability, they don't have the kit to dig in, so they're just kind of out in the open, and these things come in, and they, I mean, they're not being targeted in a real time, so they're just being loaded by coordinate, but they're landing, and they're hitting that location, and that's devastating, it's absolutely devastating, so, so you have to have the supply chain all the way back to Germany, to handle the casualty that are going to happen, you know, stuff happens, people pull over and pull a hamstring, you know, you know, you could have a minor injury, or a major injury, you could, you know, accidentally shoot yourself in the foot, you've got to be evact, and that's what happens, so, you have to have the, all I'm saying is, I don't, I mean, I see evidence now of enough, let's say the tankers are in place, and you've had some heavy lift occurring, so a lot of this concentration of energy, by energy, I mean, essentially, you know, heavy aircraft that are bringing in a lot of stuff, I'm seeing that, I'm seeing that, that is being reported, it is being reported, so, is it enough to secure a 100 trips, probably, probably, a thousand no, and more than a thousand forget about it, zero chance, so you can see right, you've got to actually stage a lot of kit into the theatre, and ideally, that kit can't be too far away from where you're fighting, you know, where those trigger pullers are located, you can't have it too far away, because they have to be able to go back to that location, get back to that location and then catch it, a heel low back to the next one, and then catch a flight back to the next one, and then back all the way back to Germany where the surgery is, where you're going to get operated on, so, and you've got to keep this personal life, they've got to have plasma, they've got to have, you know, all of the primary care needs to keep them, basically keep them alive, and until they can actually get back to proper care, so, I mean, it's a lot to talk about, but it's important because we're seeing a big move, but nothing near what would be required to, you know, sustain these trigger pullers in the field for any material length of time, and there's certainly not enough there, so far for any significant numbers, so, anyway, so they're verdict and looking forward, so Iran's decision not to hit US carriers, that's what this story is all about, why is Iran not hitting those carriers, because they're smart, they know, they know how to play this game, this is cold, this is hard, this is disciplined strategy, and they've had decades to think about this, to plan this, to load it into AI and figure out how to do it, and they're doing it, so the real danger in my estimation is miscalculation, just an accident, a cock up, I don't think all that other stuff is going to happen, the tin fall hat stuff, the conspiracy theory stuff, you know, you've got a third player coming in and doing something to try and provoke the rally round the flag, I don't think that's the case, if it was going to be anybody, then these guys would be smart enough, Israel would be smart enough to actually pull that off, but I don't, I think they'll be on that now, I think they're so badly beaten, I just think it's a bit much, a bit of a tool, I ask for them to pull anything like that off, so, but for sure, like a wider war would be extremely costly, I mean, devastating for, not just, you know, if you think this is just about the US and Iran, I think you're wrong, that's way more man, it's totally more than that, because you think of what happens if, you know, if it does kick off, if you do have a rally round the flag and you do have a major invasion, then the whalmos is going, it's never going to be the same again, the GCC will never be the same again, you know, your 401k, you know, your superannuation plan is probably going to be devastated by, by what would happen, because it would be devastating, I mean, you would be, you know, you can't unwind that, once you open that door, it's very, very difficult to go back, so I think it would be quite a devastating event, if it actually happened, I'm hoping and praying, and I hope you are too, man, I hope you are too, I'm hoping and praying that this does not kick off, it doesn't really matter if you're on Team West or if you're on Team Iran, I don't think it really matters because the, the impacts on both teams will be absolutely devastating. My prediction, if it does kick off, my prediction would be US Treasuries over 5%, US Treasuries at over 5%, now I'll just see how I can look them up now and see what they're at, they've been climbing, but over 5%, which basically means the US would struggle to pay its interest and the US would be in all sorts of trouble, 4681, 4681 is the current 10-year treasury, the US 10-year, and recently it was just bounced off 4.8, yeah, so it's 4681 and it recently hit 4800, if it gets to 5, the people that I've been listening to that are bond people like Jeffrey Gundlach, these people are in the know and they say 5% be dragons, so we're not far off 5% now, historically speaking, we're not that far off 5%, so the impact if something like this does kick off, I think it's pretty significant and it's not good for you and it's just not good for me either, it's a really bad, so I'm hoping and praying that it doesn't happen because I think we're being a deeper recession than you can imagine, they're not going to use the D-wood but we would be in an extremely deep recession and a bit extremely painful for everybody, so let's just hope team, let's just hope that doesn't happen, so yeah, these waves out here are epic, absolutely epic, it's a good day for the CFS, oh there's a jet ski out there too, oh they have it a great old time, I've just got a wet suit, a water to wet suit, it's just alright, so that's good, so we'll get out there and make the most of it, I hope wherever you are team, I hope you get out there, and I hope you also make the most of it too, wherever you are in this amazing world of ours, right, I hope you have a great day, cheers, bye!